Latest investigations show the NAND Flash market saw significantly improved supply-demand balance in H1 2025, driven by production cuts and inventory reduction. Suppliers shifting capacity to high-margin products have tightened overall supply.
On the demand side, increased enterprise AI investment and mass shipments of NVIDIA’s next-gen Blackwell chips provide strong support. NAND Flash average contract prices are projected to rise 5%-10% in Q3. However, uncertain H2 smartphone demand may limit eMMC and UFS price gains.
Client SSDs: Strong restocking amid supply-demand gap
Better-than-expected H1 inventory clearance by OEMs/ODMs will drive robust restocking in Q3 client SSDs. Catalysts include: end of Windows 10 support, new CPU-driven replacement demand, and rising interest in China’s DeepSeek all-in-one PCs. Suppliers’ push for high-capacity QLC products will also boost shipments. Client SSD contract prices are forecast to rise 3%-8% in Q3.
Growing shipments of NVIDIA’s Blackwell platform, expanding North American general server demand, and sustained strong orders from top Chinese clients will fuel enterprise SSD demand. However, surging orders (coupled with earlier capacity cuts) are straining supply chains, pushing enterprise SSD contract prices up 5%-10% in Q3.
eMMC & UFS: Flat demand, constrained supply
In mobile, China’s H2 consumer electronics subsidies have largely met demand, while weakened U.S. tariff-driven pre-purchasing has left Q3 eMMC demand lukewarm. Though supply is ample vs. other categories, suppliers cut low-end production and raised wafer prices, increasing module makers’ costs, dampening shipments, and lifting inventories. eMMC contract prices are expected to edge up 0%-5% in Q3.
Uncertain smartphone demand and early-stage automotive UFS adoption have led to a “subdued peak season” in Q3. NAND supply chains prioritizing margins have constrained UFS supply, with contract prices set to rise 0%-5% in Q3.
Wafer market: Price surge ahead
In Q2, suppliers prioritized end-market applications, squeezing module makers and lifting wafer inventories. With softening consumer NAND demand, some module makers will adopt conservative Q3 wafer procurement. Overall NAND output is falling as suppliers focus on high-margin products and cut wafer supply, driving wafer prices up 8%-13% in Q3.
